Detailed report:
Posted today!
Kos’ remarks:
Posted right after!
I’ll be putting up similar posts to the one below, to help explain long and boring things with pictures.
DailyKos Story
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Imaginary Numbers 
In your report, you say: “the average expected variance in this difference of margins over the first 60 weeks was 80.5, i.e. a range of +/- 9%”
But the 95% confidence interval is 2*sqrt(var), so I think you mean +/- 18%.
One uses the expected variance in a chi-squared test. It would be incorrect and unfair to use the square of the MOE, a similar but not identical quantity.
Superb expose, and I loved the way you managed to explain fairly complex statistical analysis in lay terms. Hope this becomes a regular ongoing blog.